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Trend: Reduced competition in America

2008/11/14 in Tumblr blog imports

As a result of the industry consolidation that has come after the credit crisis, expect to see less competition, less innovation, and generally less competitive industries.

In banking, we see mergers of big banks becoming even bigger ones.   In the auto industry, we hear rumors that GM and Ford may combine to create a monster car company.

This is the wrong direction we should be heading.  Rather than reducing competition by making larger and larger companies, we should be breaking the big guys down into smaller and smaller competitors.   If we choose to make them smaller, innovation will thrive, the consumer will win and American industry will survive globalization.

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Dont blame financial innovations (for the crisis)…

2008/10/15 in Tumblr blog imports

In the middle of this awful financial crisis, it is easy to blame financial innovations (and all of their complex algorithms) for putting us into this position.

This is just a thought, but maybe financial innovation is not to blame for our current economic mess, but is rather the reason we have experienced decades of relative economic stability.  Im going to take the contrarian point of view with this article, and argue that financial innovations could be credited with the relative few number of financial crises that we have experienced in recent years.

Maybe the fact that this is the first full-blown financial crisis in many years could be the direct result of having those financial innovations in place (and suppressing the natural tendency for banking crises).

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A dose of pessimism: How the crisis on Wall-street will spill over to Main-street

2008/09/20 in Tumblr blog imports

In this article, we will look at the connection between the ongoing financial crisis on Wall-street, and how we believe the events will translate into real impacts to consumers on “Main-street”.   We will look at the many factors that are lining up against the consumer in a “perfect storm” of (negative) events and how we believe they will effect the real (non-financial) US economy in the near-term.

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Investing in people, not in ideas

2008/07/17 in Tumblr blog imports

This discussion is in relation to innovation, and the importance of investing in people in the early-stage venture capital process:

When looking for VC funding, it is important to realize the importance of the team.  We always hear this.  But, why do VCs put such a large emphasis on the team?   I have a theory on this one:  its because essentially, the VC don’t know which ideas are going to be successful.  They don’t believe heavily in one technology or another (if they did, they would likely be entrepreneurs themselves).  Because they hear ideas all day long, they need a way to separate out the good from the bad and the ugly.

There is an essential momentum that VCs need to overcome, and need to avoid being trapped into “group-think” (herd-mentality) as everyone chases the latest trends.  If you think back to when Google was first pitching their ideas to VCs, it was common to hear criticism that “they didn’t have a sustainable business model”.   And later, as we saw money chasing money into ever more social networks, I began to wonder how many of them were just being funded by “me-too” VC funds that chased the latest fad.

The conclusion?  the most successful early-stage investments will be ones that ignore common knowledge, and buck the trends, and invest in truly original and innovative solutions.  But, without the comfort of intellectual acceptance from your peers, how do VCs wade into the unknown, and successfully make a career of betting on counter-intuitive ideas?  They key, I believe, is to invest in exceptional people with heightened technological knowledge, insight, and vision.  By seeking out and investing in leading engineers at Yahoo!, for example (many of whom may be looking for new careers now), the early stage investor will be better positioned than chasing new ideas from unknown sources.

So, that brings me back to the original question: “why are entrepreneurial teams so important?”.  In response it seems clear that early-stage investors will be better served by investing in people than in ideas.

Why?  Because at the early stage, almost all ideas sound great, possible, and world-changing.  But how many of them actually will?  Who knows, but I’ll bet you that the VC’s investing in MIT grads or ex-Google guys will have better success ratios.  Its just a better bet that their ideas are really insightful (and not trend-chasing), and that they will have the skill set (not just they hype) to pull of the transformation.

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Balancing the need for regulations with innovation (and economic growth)

2008/05/08 in Tumblr blog imports

In a macro sense; too much regulation, and we see a lack of competition, and a lack of Innovation. But too little regulation, and we see scandals, crises…and later, a call for more regulation. Think about the results of the credit crisis in the USA (2007), and the resulting calls for more regulations… is that a good thing? Well, on one hand we can see that wrong things happened, and regulation should be put in place to make sure it doesn’t happen again…but, on the other hand… if we look at any developing nation, and in country after country…we see that over regulations cuts off competition, and stymies investment, and with underinvestment comes under performing asset classes. In each of these emerging markets, we see that “deregulations” is often the key to spurring innovation, competition and economic growth. Think about this before you call for more regulations (and learn these lessons before willingly committing your market to more regulations).

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