On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we host an ongoing discussion of global “macro” economic trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on.  Some trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the USA credit crisis, deleveraging,  margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome.

Some of these potential macro economic trends may seem statistically unlikely to occur in the short term (if at all), but if they were to happen, they could cause massive global disruption to the financial and economic systems, so they are worth discussing, and taking a closer look at.  These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan’s in a   book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or “fat tail” probability in statistics.  These are the financial equivalents of 9/11, or the chance that a housing bubble could cause global economic meltdown.  In a world where the un-thinkable seems to happen with a greater frequency, it makes sense to start looking at the “worst case” scenario, and figure out how to (a) protect yourself, and (b) position your portfolio to profit from ongoing trends.

The links are to the GloboTrends wiki, where the document is dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to contribute, and to help shape our views of these important developments.  Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment…

Top Trends for 2009:

In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009):

1. Credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009…this one is clear…but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance?  Add your comments to our wiki…
2. Deleveraging of Financial markets will continue.  In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends.
3. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation).  Add your comments..
4. Changes are happening in China.  We are especially concerned about the relations/ dependency between China & USA
5. Protectionism rises: free trade movement slows down in 2008
6. Fiscal stimulus expected in massive doses…but will it have any effect at counteracting the deleveraging process?
7. Monetary / Fiscal policy seen as ineffective…so expect un-conventional action from the Fed, such as quantitative easing
8. Rise in risk aversion – investors and companies are paying for safety (as negative Treasury yields have indicated)
9. Increased regulations: Philosophical move away from “free markets” toward “bigger government”.  How far will the pendulum swing?
10. nationalizations will increase as companies go bankrupt, and look for protection.  privatizations will increase as governments sell off assets to raise cash….which will be the more important force?
11. IMF will become more important,  WTO might be sidelined
12. USA is losing stature (military seen as less strong, economy less of a model)
13. US dollar:  will it continue recent trend of strengthening during the crisis?  Or, will the weak dollar trend resume after the height of the crisis passes, and investors become concerned about excessive debt levels (which no doubt will be increased as we pay for fiscal stimulus packages proposed with the new administration)

In addition to these global trends listed above, we are also interested in discussing how these trends will effect other areas.  For example, we are discussing…how will the credit crisis affect the…

1. Rise of purchasing power in emerging markets (will this continue post “great deleveraging”?)
2. inflation (was a big problem going into 2007…now is deflation more of a concern?)
3. Asian countries fight to keep their currencies undervalued vs the dollar (will this intensify? lead to trade wars?)
4. Clean-tech and environmentally conscious investing (will this movement continue in the face of economic crisis & lower oil prices?)
5. immigration (with US & Europe stumbling, how will that affect relations with immigrants?  will there be resentment?)
6. philanthropy &  Investing in socially good projects (will giving suffer as a result of the crash?)
7. tech trends to watch (will innovation jump in response to the recession?  or, will lack of funding lead to less?)

Are we missing something?

We are looking for help… this is a community page for open discussion about global trends.

My goal with the site is to create a community where investors and global business leaders can learn, collaborate, gain reputation by contributing content, and lead discussions.   The reputation of leading a discussion on a particular topic should help to find financing, find new jobs, or find new business partners,etc…  Contribute to GloboTrends wiki: